What’s really going on at Dropbox (an insider’s perspective)
Dropbox’s surprise announcement Monday that it was shuttering two of its most popular applications, Mailbox and Carousel, was mostly matter-of-factly reported. Only a few articles even pointed out that Dropbox paid a reported $100 million to acquire Mailbox less than two years ago. As I tweeted, “$100M is a lot to write off – even for a unicorn.” So, the big question is: “Why would Dropbox do this? “
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Dropboxによる、同社の最も人気があるアプリの2つであるMailboxとCarouselを廃止するという驚きの発表は、ほぼ事務的に報道された。Dropboxが推定1億米ドルでMailboxを買収してから2年も経っていないということを指摘した記事でさえ、ほんのわずかだった。筆者がツイートしたように、「1億米ドルは償却するには大変な額だ。ユニコーンにとっても同じだ。」それならば、最大の質問はこれだ。「なぜDropboxはそんなことをしたのか？」
As COO at Hightail, I have a bit of an insider’s perspective on what may have driven this decision. While I have no information from directly inside Dropbox, I do have a deep understanding of the category. Because our business is extremely similar (albeit smaller and more focused on a specific segment), I have some theories on what market trends and internal dynamics motivated this decision.
The Need to “Focus”
The core reason Dropbox shut down these applications was stated in its public explanation: It wants to “focus” (a word used three times in a 279-word post). “Over the past few months, we’ve increased our team’s focus on collaboration and simplifying the way people work together. … Ultimately, we think this increased focus will help us create even better experiences for you in the months and years to come.”
Dropboxがこれらのアプリケーション廃止を決めた主な理由は、同社公表の説明の中で次のように述べられている。Dropboxは、「焦点（この言葉は掲載された単語数279の文章の中で3度も使われている）」を絞らなければならない。「この数か月の間、我々は、人が共に働く方法の共同化と簡素化という点にチームが「焦点」を絞ることに力を注いできた。最終的には、この焦点に力を注ぐことが、この先数か月、数年において、我々が皆さんにとってより良い体験を作り出すことに役立つでしょう。」
これらのアプリケーションを廃止した核心的理由をDropboxは公にこのように説明している。同社は「焦点」を定めたいのだ。（「焦点」という単語は279文字の投稿文のなかで3度使われた。）「過去数ヶ月間、我々は弊社チームの連携と従業員同士の働き方を簡略化するということに焦点を定めてきました。最終的に、このように焦点をしっかり定めることでこれからの将来よりよいものを生み出すことができると我々は信じています。」
A quick glance at Mailbox founder Gentry Underwood’s Twitter account shows how unpopular this decision was within the Mailbox team. Indeed, Gentry and cofounder Scott Cannon are leaving Dropbox, so not only is the product dead, but much of the team that developed it is likely headed for the exits as well. The implication of Dropbox’s decision is that it’s doing a complete reversal on its product diversification strategy.
Acquiring offshoot businesses for hundreds of millions of dollars is what you do when your core business is booming (see Facebook/Oculus). Shutting down those acquisitions is what you do when you urgently need to focus and fix your core business. While much of the media coverage has focused on the low user adoption of these products, the real question this move should raise is: What is happening with Dropbox’s core business?
An Underlying Struggle?
Increasingly, the reading of the tea leaves is that Dropbox’s core business is struggling. At Hightail, we have lived through the dynamics in this market first-hand. We rebranded our company, reduced our expenses, and launched a new product in response to these issues. Although Dropbox’s business is larger than ours on most dimensions, it is likely seeing very similar challenges.
First, the market is getting commoditized. The fundamental fact is that Dropbox’s core business of online storage is increasingly free. Big vendors are driving this trend, and customers are increasingly unwilling to pay. In many ways, this is the least interesting market condition, because all tech companies face this at some level. The history of tech is one of continuous innovation, commoditization, and reinvention.
Second, getting traction in the enterprise is difficult. Like it or not, Dropbox is still seen by most enterprise IT departments as a consumer product. Carousel and Mailbox with their consumer-centric use cases reinforced that perception. While the press likes to report on Dropbox fighting Box for enterprise dominance, the real threat is Microsoft. Just as it bundled IE with Windows to decimate Netscape’s traction in the browser market, Microsoft now gives OneDrive away for free with Office 365. OneDrive is fundamentally the same thing as Dropbox, except it’s endorsed by IT. And it’s free.
ちょうどブラウザ市場でNetscapeのトラクションの多くを激減させるために、IE とWindowsが結束したように、Microsoftは今、Office 365とOneDriveを無料で提供している。OneDriveは、Dropboxと根本的に同じである 物である。ITに裏書されている違いを除いては。そして、それは無料である。
Third, Dropbox (along with Hightail, Box, and others) is facing a fundamental shift in computing, away from “files” and towards purpose-built applications. Dropbox’s origins as a thumb drive in the cloud came in an age when users spent a lot of time thinking about their files. But, as thoughtfully expressed in this blog post (“Dropbox: the first dead decacorn”), most people don’t think too much about managing their files anymore. Whether it’s text docs with Google Docs or photos and music in iPhoto and Spotify, the idea of files in a file system seems like an increasingly antiquated concept. And this trend robs Dropbox of its core value proposition.
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Dropboxの雲の中のサムドライブは、ユーザーが、それらのファイルについて考えるのにたくさんの時間を費やしている間にやってきた。しかしこのブログポスト（「Dropbox：最初の死んだdecacorn」）に思慮深く表現されるように、人々の多くは、彼らのファイルをどのように管理するかについては多く考えなくなった。Google Docsの文書であれ、写真や音楽、iPhoto や Spotify等、ファイルのアイデアはますます古風な概念のように思われる。そしてこの傾向は、Dropboxの中心的な価値提案を強奪するのだ。
Propping Up the Unicorn
Much respect for what Drew and team have done. Dropbox’s success to-date is truly impressive. That said, Dropbox’s biggest undoing may be its own success. Dropbox rode a wave of user adoption and media hype to a $10 billion valuation. The problem is, when the market puts your valuation at that level, the expectation is insane growth.
いつかは → ある程度