GREE Is Wrong: Their Hybrid App/Browser Distribution Strategy Will Not Work [Social Games]
What I learned is that many people in the social gaming industry outside Japan don’t know that GREE and Mobage operator DeNA have actually been running multiple platforms in Japan over the last few years, not just one.
Apart from Yahoo Mobage on the PC, these are GREE and Mobage on:
・Japanese feature phones (browser-based)
・iOS (app-based)
・Android (app-based)
・smartphones (browser-based).
聞くところによると、海外のソーシャルゲーム業界の多くの人は、GREEとMobageのオペレーターDeNAがここ数年間、日本で1つでけでなく複数のプラットフォームを運営していることを知らないらしい。
パソコン上のYahoo Mobageとは別に、以下のようなデバイスにもGREEとMobageが搭載されている。
日本のフィーチャーフォン(ブラウザーベース)
iOS(アプリベース)
Android(アプリベース)
スマートフォン(ブラウザーベース)
For a lot of games, i.e. 2D card battle games that require no sound, GREE and Mobage (plus their third-party devs) go for the browser on smartphones, as the 30% tax by Apple and Google isn’t an issue. And in this case, even Japanese iPhone users can pay for items via carrier billing.
To make it clear: in Japan, DeNA and GREE try everything in their power to avoid the App Store and Google Play, as they lose control, have to follow Apple’s and Google’s guidelines, and pay 30% fees on every single cent (or yen) their own and third-party games generate over their lifetime.
明確にしたいのは、日本ではDeNAとGREEはApp StoreとGoogle Playを避けるためなら何でもする。コントロールを失い、AppleとGoogleのガイドラインに従い、自社、第三者のゲームによって発生する1セント(1円)全てに大して未来永劫30%の支払いをせざるを得ないからだ。
その場合、日本のiPhoneのユーザーでもキャリアによる決済が可能だ。
はっきり言えば、日本のDeNAとGREEは、もし自社を管理できなければAppleやGoogleのガイドラインに従って生涯にわたって自社のゲームやサードパーティーゲームが生み出すたった1セント(1円)に対して30%の費用を払わなくてはならないため、App StoreやGoogle Playを避けるため、全力を尽くしている。
So far, this hybrid distribution strategy has worked in Japan. Many old feature phone hits, which are technically limited by nature, have been simply ported to smartphone browsers, especially in the early days of iOS and Android. I have even seen quick and dirty ports of games where users are still told to “press a key” to skip a cut scene. Japanese users seem to be OK with this so far.
So far, DeNA has resisted to the urge to offer web-based games internationally to circumvent the Apple and Android ecosystems.
But now GREE announced it is trying to do exactly that, via an “expansion of the HTML5 compatibility of the GREE platform” that’s supposed to start this month.
現在の所、DeNAはAppleとAndroidのエコシステムを回避するため、国際市場でのウエブベースの配信を控えてきた。
しかし今GREEはまさにそれをしようとしている。「GREEプラットフォーム用HTML5の拡大」は今月開始予定だ。
これまで、DeNAはAppleとAndroidのエコシステムを巧みに回避するためにインターネットゲームを国際的に提供させようという衝動に抵抗している。
しかし今GREEは今月開始される見込みの「GREEのプラットフォームのHTML5の互換性拡張」を通してきちんと対処しようと努めていると発表した。
In other words, GREE thinks that it can replicate their smartphone distribution model internationally – but I am pretty sure this won’t work.
It’s worse. It looks like GREE doesn’t know what they are doing outside Japan.
There are more than 2 or 3 reasons I can think of that speak against a “worldwide” hybrid distribution strategy. Here are just some examples:
・As stated by more than just a few people over the last months, HTML5 is not yet ready for prime time, at least not in games. It’s as simple as that. (Note: I am saying this as one of the believers in HTML5.)
いやいっそうひどい。GREEは海外で自分たちが何をしているのかわかっていないようだ。
「世界的」ハイブリッド分配作戦に反対している考え得る理由は2つ、3つ以上ある。以下は、そのなかのいくつかの例だ。
ここ数か月、多くの人が述べているように、HTML5は、少なくともゲームとしては、まだプライムタイム用の準備ができていない。それだけのことだ。
(注:私はこれをHTML5の信奉者の1人として述べている。)
・Mobile games are maturing at a fast clip, and many of the top titles can only be offered as native apps, not through the web. This is becoming more and more evident within Japan, too. Most of GREE’s own “next-generation” social games are app-only (example 1, 2, 3). And it makes sense, as users are getting more and more demanding over time. Mobile games in 2012 have nothing in common with those that have come out in 2008.
・GREE says one advantage is that users can pay with their cell phone bill for web-based games. But users worldwide are OK with downloading and paying for games and IAP. Google and Apple have millions of users and credit cards on file. They make billions with the app business model. They are established. Google has enabled carrier billing for Android apps in many markets already, including Japan and the US.
・Hybrid distribution means that GREE will offer users and developers two destinations. This is neither a clear nor a sustainable value proposition. There are some games in Japan, i.e. Dragon Collection from Konami, which have both a browser and an app version at the same time: what’s the benefit for the user – or the developer – here?
・There is no other platform in the US or Europe that has been successful with such a (or similar) strategy. GREE would be the first to “crack” the distribution duopoly of Apple and Google. The question is if this is realistic scenario. And GREE apparently still doesn’t want to integrate Facebook, while DeNA caved in months ago.
・アメリカやヨーロッパでそういった(類似した)戦略で成功したプラットフォームは存在しない。GREEはAppleとGoogleの2社独占の「牙城に喰い込む」最初のプラットフォームとなりえるのか。それが現実的なシナリオかどうかが問題である。数ヶ月前に陥落したDeNAと違い、GREEは明らかにFacebookと連携するつもりはなさそうだ。
アメリカやヨーロッパではそのような(あるいは類似の)作戦で成功してプラットフォームはない。GREEはAppleとGoogleの企業2社の分配独占に割って入ろうとする最初の企業かもしれない。問題は、それが実際的なシナリオなのかどうかということだ。そして数か月前にDeNAが破産しているにもかかわらずGREEはいまだにFacebookに加わろうとしていない。
・GREE says that one of the reasons for their expansion to the web is that it helps to solve the problem of discoverability that has appeared with the rapid growth of the iOS and Android app ecosystems. But wasn’t that the key pitch of the original/app-based GREE social gaming network to solve exactly that problem for non-Japanese social game developers?
There is a whole lot more to say here, but the bottom line is that, at least in my humble opinion, GREE is making a strategic mistake by betting on HTML5 as the key to international success. There is no benefit for users whatsoever. Developers will not suddenly move over to the GREE platform in favor of the App Store or Google Play just because GREE can save 30% platform tax and regain control.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the company getting watched more closely by Google and Apple from now on for obvious reasons. One consequence could be that GREE-powered games (apps) will not get featured/recommended on the App Store and Google Play, as GREE clearly attempts to establish an alternative platform here.
For now, the only GREE game in English offered in HTML5 is Cerberus Age. More are apparently coming.
Too bad this move doesn’t give me reason to revise my personal perspective on GREE’s and Mobage’s chances as platform providers outside Japan – quite the contrary.
今の所、HTML5で英語で配信されている唯一のGREEゲームはCerberus Ageのみである。その他にも続々配信予定だ。
しかしこういった動きもGREEとMobageに対する私の個人的見解は変えることはできない。日本以外のプラットフォームの設立は、極めて難しい。
さしあたり、HTML5で提供されているGREEの唯一の英語版ゲームはCerberus Ageだ。さらに多くのゲームが近々発売されるようだ。
しかし、このような非常にまずい動きがGREEや Mobageの海外におけるプラットフォームプロバイダーとしてのチャンスに関する自分の個人的見解を改める理由にはならない。全くその反対だ。