2016 will go down as a year of major political upheaval after the British and American electorates voted to overturn the established order. This month’s Global Outlook finds our investment teams grappling with the market consequences of this crystallisation of political risk. Neil Matheson, MarketStrategist, argues that Donald Trump’s US election win should enable fiscal and monetary policy to both be pointed at generating stronger growth.
As long as the President-elect avoids a disruptive increase in trade protectionism, this should reinforce the improvement in global growth, inflation and corporate earnings trends that was already underway before the US election, and was supporting the rotation towards a heavier equity and lighter government bond exposure in the House View.Jennifer Catlow, Investment Director, Multi-Asset Investing, then shows how our multi-asset funds are positioned to take advantage of this fiscal-led reflation theme through exposure to longer-dated inflation in the US, as well as a long equity position in US banks relative to a short position in consumer staples.
複合アセット投資のディレクターであるJennifer Catlowは次に、米国の長期インフレへのエクスポージャーを通じたリフレーションテーマ、及び消費財における短期ポジションに関連した米国の銀行における長期の株式ポジションを活用するために、マルチアセットファンドがどのようにポジションを取っているか、示しています。
Meanwhile, Fraser Duff, Investment Director, Credit, demonstrates that recent political shocks and an aggressive sell-off in government bond markets have been absorbed
well by the European high yield bond market, thanks in part to the conservative way in which many companies are now managed. That said, the large depreciation in sterling since the UK referendum in June is taking its toll on consumer discretionary firms in the UK that source most of their stock from overseas.
Continuing the micro theme, Amanda Young, Head of Responsible Investing, highlights how a growing number of investors and asset managers are recognising the value of taking environmental, social and governance factors into account when assessing the sustainability of companies’ earnings and performance. While Trump’s victory could be seen as a setback for tackling issues like climate change, the social awareness and increasing clout of millennials mean that socially responsible investing will continue to grow in importance.Although risk assets have generally been resilient in the face of the US election result, local currency emerging market bonds have taken a hit.
This is mostly due to the significant appreciation of the US dollar since 8 November, but the perception that a more mercantilist and inward-facing US government may be negative for emerging markets has also played a part. While this short-term reaction is unsurprising, in the latest update to our emerging markets heat map, Nicolas Jaquier, Investment Director, Emerging Market Debt,reveals that external and internal imbalances have diminished across a wide range of countries since the 2013 taper tantrum and the 2014-15 growth and commodity price shock.
In part, this is due to improved policy frameworks that put countries in a better position to withstand another round of tightening in US dollar liquidity conditions should the dollar rally continue.
2行目”ヨーロッパ人”を”ヨーロッパ”に訂正します。失礼しました。