When to Sunset and When to Stay With Social Games on Facebook
August 8th, 2011
This was the case for several games developed by ZipZapPlay prior to its PopCap acquisition. Curt Bererton, former CEO of ZipZapPlay and now General Manager under PopCap, walked an audience through the equation during a session at Casual Connect in Seattle last month. In his talk, titled “Finding the Minimum Viable Game and When to Kill Your Baby,” he explained how the developer checked the LTV > CPI equation on the first day of launch, the seventh day post-launch, and then a final time a month after the game’s launch. In general, he says, if LTV > CPI after 30 days, you’re doing it right.
2011年8月8日
これはZipZapPlayがPopCap買収以前に開発したいくつかのゲームに当てはまる。ZipZapPlayの前最高経営責任者でPopCapの統括マネージャーであるCurt Bererton氏は先月のカジュアルゲームイベント「Casual Connect Seatle」のセッションで聴衆にその等式についてざっと説明した。「最低限生き残り可能なゲームを見いだすことといつ我が子を殺すのか」と題された講演の中で、氏は開発者たちがゲームローンチにあたって、LTV(lifetime value) > CPI(Cost Per Install)の等式について初日、7日後、月の終わりというそれぞれの時期にチェックした方法を説明した。一般的にLTV(lifetime value) > CPI(Cost Per Install)の等式が30日後にも当てはまっているなら、そのゲームはうまくいっているといえる。
The point at which the equation seems to change dramatically for most developers is after the three- and four-month mark, where we see social games lose a lot of their early traffic. At this point, says Ryan, the game’s LTV is usually very high because only the dedicated paying users remain in the game while non-paying users have left. Depending on how a developer manages the CPI, the game will either thrive on its loyal users, or gradually decline over a period that ranges from six months to a year.
Case Study: ZipZapPlay’s Happy Habitat
The graph above shows the entire traffic life cycle of Happy Habitat as recorded by our traffic tracking service, AppData. At its peak in March 2010, the game had an all-time high of 501,918 monthly active users and 79,921 daily active users. At the point of the PopCap acquisition in April 2011, Happy Habitat got a slight lift in MAU and DAU as the new owner announced plans to sunset the title. The game officially ended June 30, 2011 at the age of 2.5 years.
上のグラフは我々のトラフィック追跡サービスAppDataにより記録されたHappy Habitatのトラフィックライフサイクルである。2010年3月のピーク時には501918人の月間アクティブユーザを記録し、日間アクティブユーザは79921人だった。2011年4月のPopCap買収の際にはHappy Habitatは月間・日間アクティブユーザともにわずかに増加した、というのは新オーナーがHappy Habitatの終了を告げたからだ。Happy Habitatは2011年の6月30日に2年6ヶ月で公式サービスを終了した。
When to Hang On
A game might have a LTV < CPI situation on its hands when retention drops below 10% and average revenue per daily active user is already low (say, less than 1 cent). That doesn’t always result in sunsetting, however, as we’ve seen developers turn a game around by simply changing the gameplay or adding new content.
When a game introduces a new expansion, two things happen: MAU and DAU spike as new users come into the game, and retention (DAU as a percentage of MAU) falls. This creates a second curve in the game’s overall life cycle similar to its first three months on the market. Like those first six months, the non-paying users will drop out and the dedicated paying users will stay — and hopefully there will be more of those dedicated users than prior to the expansion.
