Don’t Underestimate the Future of the Truth
Another common problem is underestimating, or simply not considering, the confidence level in the analytics results that the CEO is being fed. Maybe we are comfortable with the data and the assumptions, we’ve asked the right questions and we’ve taken the risks into consideration, but we haven’t assessed the confidence level of our predictions.
This gets into classic model assessment techniques in analytics. Is the forecast plus-or-minus 1 percent or 20 percent? If it is critical to increase sales by 5 percent and the model predicts 10 percent sales growth within plus-or-minus 5 percent, then we’re probably fine. But if the model predicts 10 percent sales growth plus or minus 15 percent, then we might be closing up shop at the end of the year if we aren’t careful.
So, What Needs to Change?
The culture around how data is viewed and data-driven decisions are made has to change. If a data scientist brings all the assumptions and risks to a boardroom conversation only to get chewed up and spat out, the next time he enters that boardroom, he’ll be sure to hide the negative truths. But, when the culture encourages curiosity and impartial acceptance of the story the data tells, then those who keep the data are free to share what they know and won’t be afraid to point to the data, all the data, and not just the rosy bits.
データがどう分析され、データをもとにどう決定がなされるかを取り巻く風習を、変えていく必要がある。もしデータ科学者が会議室での議題に全ての予測とリスクを準備し、非難され口論になったとしたら、次の機会にまた会議がある場合、科学者は間違いなくネガティブな真実は隠すであろう。しかし、風習がデータに対する好奇心と公平な支持を奨励するようなものであれば、そのようなデータを持つ科学者たちは自由に自身が知っていることを共有することができ、ポジティブな点だけではなく、全てのデータを提示することができるのである。
The CEO must take the responsibility to actively ask about risks and foster a culture of transparency. But so too does everyone else. Team members at all levels need to take responsibility for holding to the truth in the data and maintaining complete transparency when communicating up the corporate hierarchy.
Executives have to ask their people to do this due diligence as they pass up the results, and they have to ask the questions back down so it becomes a conversation around data, not simply a one-sided dashboard, or presentation. In some cases, there may not be any material risk, but the fact you intelligently reached that conclusion demonstrates that you have the discipline to make the assessment. As a CEO or senior executive, you can’t assume everyone did a great job of validating all the potential risks and made all the right assumptions. You have to ask for the truth and be willing to handle it.
Bill Franks is Chief Analytics Officer at Teradata, where he provides insight on trends in the analytics and big data space. He is author of the book Taming The Big Data Tidal Wave and most recently published his second book, The Analytics Revolution. He is an active speaker and a faculty member of the International Institute for Analytics. Find him at www.bill-franks.com.
文末がガイドラインに沿っておらず申し訳ないです。
実際の未来を過小評価しないこと
もうひとつのよくある問題は、最高経営責任者がもらう分析結果の信頼度を、過小評価すること、もしくは単純によく考えないだ。
おそらく、私たちはデータや仮定に自信を持ち、正しい質問を投げかけリスクを考慮に入れる、しかし予測した信頼度は見極めていないのである。