However, the cumulative impact of worldwide catastrophe losses in 2010 and 2011, combined with RMS recent version, will likely result in some firming of catastrophe rates that will vary on a regional basis, although not at the same levels seen after Katrina.
“While some similar factors are present in 2011, other significant factors are not. Absent another event, we do not foresee the same level of price increases that we saw at the beginning of 2006. The 2010-2011 losses are widely believed to be more of a significant ‘earnings’ event rather than an impairment to capital. "
2011年には同様の要因のいくつかは存在しているが、重大な要因のいくつかは存在していない。また新たな災害が起こらなければ、2006年の上旬と同レベルの相場上昇はないと予想している。2010年から2011の損失は、資本を悪化させるというよりもむしろより一層の大きな収益をもたらすと主に考えられている。
"Additionally, though rating agencies may adjust their views of risk because of the international catastrophe experience, we do not expect the same type of downgrades seen in 2005 and 2006.”
Towers Watson estimates total insured losses resulting from the disaster will be between $20 billion and $45 billion. The wide gap between the insurance losses and economic losses — currently estimated to be in excess of $300 billion — exists are because most of the loss is either uninsured or assumed by the Japanese government. Further, most potential liabilities associated with nuclear exposure from the event are not significantly insured by the private market and remain the responsibility of the Japanese government.
Towers Watsonは、この大災害により保険が適用される損失額は450億円と概算している。現時点で3000億円超と見積もられている保険損失額と経済損失額の大きな隔たりは、損失のほとんどが保険適用外であるか日本政府に公的保証を認められていないために生じている。さらに、この災害による放射性物質漏えいに関連した最も重要視されている債務は、民間の市場では十分に保証されず、日本政府の責任とされたままだ。
Towers ’s insured loss range -- which includes losses for both Japanese and international insurers and reinsurers -- comprises damages to residential and commercial properties (including business interruption), marine, auto and life insurance.
“Of the insured loss, only $12 billion to $15 billion will be reinsured internationally; about 30% to 40% of the insured loss or 4% to 5% of the overall economic loss,”
“Despite the terrible tragedy of the earthquake and the massive economic damage, the impact on the world reinsurance market, while material, is unlikely to approach the level of Katrina. "
「保証される損失のうち、たった120億ドルから150億ドルが国際的に再保険で保証される。これは保証される損失額の30%から40%、経済損失額の総計の4%から5%にすぎない」。
「地震によって大惨事が起こり、大規模な経済損失を被ったにもかかわらず、世界の再保険市場への影響は、小さくはないが、ハリケーンカトリーナの時のレベルには達しないだろうと予測されている。
"To put Katrina in perspective, about $65 billion of roughly $150 billion in economic loss (43%) was insured, and much of the insured amount was reinsured in the wider international market.”
Towers notes that after Katrina, catastrophe rates increased 50% to 100% for peak-zone US exposures. However, there were several factors in 2005 that do not appear to be present to the same extent. In the wake of the three major hurricanes -- Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- there was the two-pronged recalibration of catastrophe risk by the major modeling firms and required capital for reinsurers, which was promulgated by the rating agencies.
Towersによれば、ハリケーンカトリーナ発生後アメリカの被災地域での災害保険の相場は50%から100%上昇した。しかしながら、2005年には程度は違うがいくつかの要因が存在していた。カトリーナ、リタ、ウィルマの３つの大きなハリケーン発生時、モデルとなる主要会社と再保険会社の依頼された資本家が災害保険相場を綿密に再評定し、それを格付け会社が公表した。
Further, while most multi-line reinsurers absorbed the catastrophe losses reasonably well, certain catastrophe specialists either exited the market or experienced financial distress. These factors caused a simultaneous increase in demand for catastrophe reinsurance with a decrease in supply, leading to the rise in market pricing.
“Unlike Katrina, the vast majority of this loss will not be borne by the world reinsurance market, and for some reinsurers, their loss from the two recent New Zealand earthquakes may surpass their loss from Japan. "
"The low take-up rates for earthquake insurance and the propensity of the Japanese market to insure domestically means that the vast majority of the Japan loss will be absorbed within the country.”
Turning to reinsurance renewals, citing published reports and market estimates, Towers Watson projects 20% to 50% rate increases for Japanese programs, likely increases in India (April 1 renewals) and Australia/New Zealand (July 1 renewals). Impacts on U.S. programs may be different, depending on the type of exposures reinsured, but many industry observers are expecting some pressure for increases for the upcoming U.S. hurricane renewal season (June 1 and July 1 renewals, respectively).
再保険の更新に関しては、公表された報告と市場評価によれば、Towers Watsonはインド（4月1日更新）、オーストラリア・ニュージーランド（7月1日更新）と同様、日本の再保険が20％から50％増加すると算定している。アメリカへの影響は再保険の対象となる損害の種類によって異なっており、産業評論家の多くはアメリカのハリケーン保険の更新時期に向けて何らかの増加への圧力があるかもしれないと推測している。
