Most of the life insurers raised equity during the crisis but capital positions are now back to near pre-crisis levels. On an asset-weighted basis (to avoid skewing the results by the relatively small but highly capitalized Torchmark), the average equity/assets ratio, excluding separate accounts, now stands at approximately 10%. This is much higher than the single-digit levels reported during the depths of the financial crisis, but it is important to note that life insurance companies continue to exhibit a large amount of leverage.
Although some of the companies are attempting to lower the risk of their operations and balance sheet going forward, it will be necessary for life insurers to hold higher capital levels than they had in the past.
Over time, this will not only fortify financial strength, but will also put pressure on ROEs.
Despite strong 4Q, we estimate that many of the life insurers still generated returns below their cost of capital. Unfavorable industry dynamics cause us to dislike the business models, which is why few life insurers are endowed with a moat. We believe moats are difficult to achieve across the insurance industry, but life insurers in particular struggle to maintain long-term competitive advantages.
好調な第4四半期ではあるが、生保の多くは資本コスト以下の利益しかあげられていない。業界の好ましくないダイナミクスはそのビジネスモデルについて我々に嫌悪感を持たせることとなる。ゆえに生保の殆どが「堀」を持っていない。生保にとって「堀」をもつことは難しいことと考えるが、しかし、生保会社は特に長期における競争優位点を維持するために奮闘している。
いずれは、このことは単に財務の健全性を強化するだけなく、ROE (株式資本利益率)にもプレッシャーをかけることになるだろう。
第4四半期の強さにも関わらず、我々は多くの生命保険会社が、依然として資本コスト以下の利益であったと見積もっている。好ましくない業界ダイナミクスは私たちにビジネスモデルを敬遠させるが、それが、いわゆる“堀”を与えられている生命保険会社がほとんどない理由なのである。我々は、“堀”が保険業界全体で実現するのは難しいものの、とりわけ生命保険会社は、長期的な競争優位を維持しようと懸命に努力すると考えている。
Life insurance are similar to commodities, and consumers are likely to shop for the best price. Any innovation created by industry players can quickly be replicated by competitors, pushing down returns. Finally, irrational players can operate for an extended period of time with delayed consequences years out, forcing the industry to either match artificially low prices or lose business.
There are still a few insurance companies that have been able to establish the long-term competitive advantages necessary to generate a moat. Torch, Principal, and Aflac carry narrow economic moats. Torch has established itself as the dominant player in these submarkets, and its low-cost advantage helps keep competitors at bay.
economic moat(経済的な堀)を造るために必要な、競争力を長期間維持している保険会社が数社ある。Torch、 Principal、Aflacは、それぞれ狭いeconomic moatを持っている。Torchはこれらのサブマーケットにおける強力な企業として確立した地位を持ち、低価格を維持することで他の競争相手を寄せ付けないでいる。
“堀”を生みだすのに欠かせない、長期的な競争優位を達成できている保険会社もまだ存在する。トーチ、プリンシパル、そしてアフラックは、狭いながらも経済的な“堀”を持っている。トーチはサブマーケットにおける独占的プレーヤーとして自らを確立してきており、その低コストの優位性は競争相手を寄せ付けずにいる。
Principal and Aflac, while classified as life insurers, don't focus on traditional life insurance as much as the rest of the group does. Aflac's products are primarily supplementary insurance, which are more easily priced, allowing the firm to generate a strong underwriting margin. Furthermore, it has a low-cost business model and first-mover advantage in Japan, allowing it to generate excess returns. Principal, on the other hand, has dug itself a moat by being more of an asset manager and retirement product provider. The firm targets small businesses, a niche with lower penetration levels.
It is also able to leverage its life insurance products and sell to the executives of these small businesses, keeping customers sticky through a large suite of complimentary services. While none of these companies are currently trading at substantial discounts to our fair value estimates, we think that investors should focus on these firms first if considering an investment in the life insurance industry.
Looking ahead, we believe international operations will drive a large portion of future results for domestic life insurance companies. Most already had international operations, but a few have strengthened their positions through acquisitions.
今後のことを考えると、一般家庭向けの生命保険会社にとっては、国際的に事業展開することが将来的に多くの結果を出すことにつながるだろうと信じている。多くの会社はすでに国際事業展開しているが、買収を通して自社の位置づけを強化してきた企業は少ない。
Notably, MetLife and Prudential, through its acquisition of AIG's Star and Edison Life companies, have enhanced their positions in Asian emerging markets. Compared to mature domestic markets, emerging markets are underpenetrated by insurers. As these emerging countries grow, they increasingly use insurance for risk management purposes, giving life insurance companies new customers. Global expansion has the potential to make life insurers more profitable in the near term as they convert new, previously uninsured, customers as opposed to engaging in costly competition with each other. We expect solid growth and profitability to persist in upcoming quarters, provided the financial markets cooperate.