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Ireland is still vulnerable to any downturn in Britain or Europe because most of its trade is conducted with them. Some economists at the Central Bank of Ireland privately worry that the few signs of recovery in the Irish economy at the moment are due to spillover effects from Britain's recovery rather than due to much improvement in Ireland's own economic fortunes. Other headwinds from its neighbours will also hit in the years to come. British efforts to make Northern Ireland more competitive, for instance, will, rather unhelpfully, put a lower cost competitor on its doorstep and may attract foreign investment away from the rest of Ireland.
And anything that could cause a stampede of multinational companies out of Ireland, which currently generate 20% of Ireland's GDP, would wreak havoc. In short, a big external shock to the economy could easily send its towering pile of debt crashing down on top of it.

So far, Ireland has tried to deal with its debt problems through austerity. In the eyes of the International Monetary Fund, it has become the poster child of Europe by meeting most of the targets set for it in its bail-out agreement. However, this has done little to solve Ireland's underlying ailment: the fact that domestic activity—roughly equivalent to GNP—only accounts for 80% of GDP.