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[Translation from English to Japanese ] The new corporate tax cuts are unlikely to stimulate the level of job creatio...

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The new corporate tax cuts are unlikely to stimulate the level of job creation and wage growth that the Trump administration has promised, a trio of prominent economists has concluded, because high tax rates were not pushing much investment out of the United States in the first place.

Instead, the researchers conclude, multinational corporations based in the United States and other advanced economies have sheltered nearly 40 percent of their profits in tax havens like Bermuda, depriving their domestic governments of tax revenues and enriching wealthy shareholders.That number suggests a jarringly large amount of what appears, to policymakers, to be investment pushed abroad .

This idea that if you cut taxes, you’ll attract a lot of physical capital, a lot of investment to the United States, I don’t think is supported by the evidence,” said Gabriel Zucman, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, and one of the paper’s authors. “Paper profits — that doesn’t boost wages for workers. What boosts wages is actual factories.”

The research by Mr. Zucman and Thomas Torslov and Ludvig Wier of the University of Copenhagen does not imply that corporate tax cuts will not help companies or lead to at least some new investment.But it challenges the magnitude of the increase that President Trump and congressional Republicans promised would result from cutting the corporate tax rate . Throughout the debate over the tax bill, Republicans cast the country’s corporate tax rate as uncompetitive when compared with nations such as Ireland and Canada, and said the rate was pushing American multinationals to park their profits in other countries where their tax bills would be lower.

The new research concludes that assumption is wrong. “Machines don’t move to low-tax places,” the economists write, “paper profits do.”

Administration officials dismissed the researchers’ results, saying the evidence is clear that reducing corporate tax rates increases investment and wages. The chairman of Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin A. Hassett, has long argued that workers’ wages are bolstered in countries where companies locate their profits. Last year, the council publicly estimated that reducing America’s corporate rate would raise average household incomes in the United States by $4,000 to $9,000 a year in the medium run.

The research by Mr. Zucman, Mr. Torslov and Mr. Wier employs a first-of-its-kind method to assess how big a share of profits multinational corporations stash overseas. They draw on international data to determine a ratio of pretax profits to wages at individual companies, for both locally owned firms and foreign firms operating in those countries. They find that multinationals operating in tax havens are far more profitable than locally owned companies in those countries, and that their profits dwarf what they pay workers. They break the numbers down to show the outsize profits are largely due to money being “shifted” — on paper — into those havens.

Large corporations like Apple, Google, Nike and Starbucks all take steps to book profits in tax havens such as Bermuda and Ireland. Their strategies have prompted a crackdown by government regulators, particularly in the European Union, where officials have tried to force companies to pay back taxes they believed are owed to their countries. Mr. Zucman said his research suggested that officials should step up those efforts.

“It’s very striking in the sense that these multinational companies, they are the main winners from globalization. And they are also those who have seen their tax rates fall a lot,” Mr. Zucman said. “This means that other actors in the economy, they have to pay more in order to take up the tax burden.”

Mr. Zucman said the results should cause policymakers to rethink their efforts on several fronts. They suggest, he said, that advanced countries are underestimating economic growth and undercollecting corporate tax revenues, because they are missing the profits that have been shifted on paper by multinational corporations. Kimberly Clausing, an economist at Reed College who has written and researched extensively about the scope of shifting profits to tax havens, said the research demonstrated that “the decline in the corporate tax is a result of policy, not an inevitable feature of the global economy. This implies that policymakers have the ability to address this problem without losing out in a tax competition game against other countries. But they must have the will to tackle tax havens themselves, instead of directing their fire at other non-haven countries.”

Included in the new tax law were several steps meant to address profit-shifting, including a complicated set of global minimum taxes for multinational corporations. Those steps have frustrated many companies as they wait for the Treasury Department to issue regulations and guidance on how they will be put into effect. Some economists worry that one of the measures could actually encourage companies to move jobs out of the United States.

Mr. Zucman said it was too soon to tell whether those measures would succeed. But he said it was clear that policymakers should worry less about outdoing their allies with corporate tax cuts, and instead consider steps to crack down on profit-shifting, such as taxing profits where companies register their sales.
nicole6116 Translated by nicole6116 sujiko Translated by sujiko kujitan Translated by kujitan tourmaline Translated by tourmaline
その代わりこの研究者たちが結論づけたのは、アメリカや他の先進国を基盤とする多国籍企業が40%に及ぶ利益をバーミューダのようなタックスヘブンに逃避させ、国内の税収入を減らし裕福な投資家たちに利益をもたらしているということだ。この数値は、国外に追いやられた投資のなかでも、政治家たちにとって不愉快なほど大きな額である。 減税すれば多くの実質的資本を引寄せ、アメリカに投資が増えるという考えはこの状況に支持されているとは思わない」とカリフォルニテ大学バークレイ校のエコノミストでありこの新聞社の執筆家である、カブリエル・ズクマンは言った。「机上の利益が労働者たちの賃金を引上げるのではなく、実際に工場が建つことこそ引上げるのだ。」

ズクマン氏とコペンハーゲン大学のトマス・トルスロフ氏、ルドヴィヒ・ワイア氏の調査は、法人税の削減は企業を支援せず少なくともなんらかの新たな投資を導かないと結論づけているのではない。 税の法案についての議論において共和党議員はアイルランドやカナダなどと比較した場合法人税には非競合的なレートを提案し、このレートにより税率が低い他の諸国において米国の多国籍企業の収益の保留が促されると述べました。


行政の職員はこのリサーチャーの結果を否定し、法人税の低下が投資と賃金を増幅すると称する証拠が明白である旨を言及しました。 大統領経済諮問委員会議長のケビン・A・ハセット氏は、労働者の賃金は企業が利益を置く国の中で上昇するものだとずっと主張してきた。 昨年、この委員会はアメリカの法人税率削減により、アメリカの平均年収が中期的に4,000ドルから9,000ドルに上昇すると見積もっていた。

ズクマン、トルトフ、ワイアの三氏の調査は、この種の調査で初めての、多国籍企業が国外に移した利益がどれぐらいかを評価する方法を採用している。彼らは、それぞれの国の国内企業と外国企業の、個々の税引き前の利益と賃金の比率を示す、国際的データを導きだしている。 彼等はそれらの諸国では地元の企業よりもタックスヘブンにおいて運営している企業の方が遥かに収益をあげており、彼らの収益は労働者への支払いにより減少することを知悉しました。彼等は数値を減少し、巨利が紙からヘブンへの「移行」により発生したことを示しました。

アップル、グーグル、ナイキ、スターバックスのような大手はバミューダやアイルランドのようなタックスヘブンでの収益の予約のため全てのステップを踏襲しました。彼らの戦略は政府の規制者たちによる取締りを促進し、これは特にEUにおいて顕著です。同国では政府の職員が企業へ自国に負っている税金を返済するよう強制しました。 ズックマン氏は彼の研究は当局者はよりいっそうの努力を重ねるべきだと提言している。

ズックマン氏はこの結果は、政治家がいくつかの領域での取り組みを再考する要因となるだろうと言う。彼らは先進国は経済成長を過小評価しており、法人税の収入をきちんと徴収していない。なぜなら彼らは多国籍企業が登記を変更することで利益を失っている。 リード大学のエコノミストであり、利益をタックスヘブンに移すことに関して広範囲に研究していたキンバリー・クラージング曰く、研究は「法人税がへることは、ポリシーの結果であり、グローバル経済で不可避のことではない。これは、政策立案者が他国に対する税金競争のゲームで負けることなく、この問題を提示する能力があるということを暗示する。しかし彼ら自身でもタックスヘブンに立ち向かうための意思をもたなくてはならない。タックスヘブンではない他の国に立ち向かうのではなく。」

新しい税法に含められていることは、利益を移すことに関するいくつかのステップで、多国籍企業への込み入った一連のグローバル最低税金を含んでいる。 これらのステップは多くの企業を苛立たせており、財務省がどのように行使するかについての法令とガイダンスを交付するのを待っている。方策の一つは実は企業に米国から逃れて仕事をすることを薦めているであろうと言う経済学者もいる。


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